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The Trade Deficit is expected to rise to $44.5 billion for August from 42.8 billion in July. This is probably the most important number to be released for the week, and if the trade deficit does rise as expected it will be bad news. The big slowdown in china gdp we saw from the first quarter to the second quarter can almost entirely be blamed on the deterioration in the Trade Deficit (or, more precisely, net exports). A big increase in the deficit for August would be a very bad omen for best business strategy blogs in the third quarter. Given the recent sharp decline in the dollar it would be disappointing, but currency moves often have significant lags before they affect net exports. Particularly for the short term, the trade deficit is a FAR bigger economic problem than is the budget deficit.

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